INTRYGUE: Induction-Aware Entropy Gating for Reliable RAG Uncertainty Estimation

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arXiv:2603.21607v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances LLM performance, it does not eliminate hallucinations, making accurate detection essential. Uncertainty-based methods are attractive for this purpose because they can be integrated into real-world pipelines with little overhead. One of the most widely used uncertainty signals is predictive entropy. We show, however, that entropy can be unreliable in RAG settings and trace this limitation to two opposing internal effects. Induction heads, which copy patterns from earlier context, causally sup