Sleeping Kelly
Quick summary
arXiv:2510.15911v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Sleeping Beauty problem is a problem of imperfect recall that has received considerable attention. One approach to solving the Sleeping Beauty problem is to allow Sleeping Beauty to make decisions based on her beliefs, and then characterize what it takes for her decisions to be "rational". In particular, she can be allowed to make monetary bets based on her beliefs, with the assumption that she wants to gain wealth rather than lose it. However, this approach is often coupled with the erroneous assumption that Sleeping Beauty should
Key takeaways
- arXiv:2510.15911v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Sleeping Beauty problem is a problem of imperfect recall that has received considerable attention.
- One approach to solving the Sleeping Beauty problem is to allow Sleeping Beauty to make decisions based on her beliefs, and then characterize what it takes for her decisions to be "rational".
- In particular, she can be allowed to make monetary bets based on her beliefs, with the assumption that she wants to gain wealth rather than lose it.
Why it matters
The importance of “Sleeping Kelly” will be measured by what changes in practice. User behavior, access conditions, verifiable performance and responsible-use outcomes are the signals worth following.

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