arXiv Artificial Intelligence

Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models

3 hours ago 23.09.2026 07:00 👁 2 views
Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models

Quick summary

arXiv:2609.24881v2 Announce Type: new Abstract: In high-stakes decision-making applications of large language models (LLMs), practitioners require not only accurate LLMs but also uncertainty estimates for their predictions. Existing approaches to uncertainty estimation for LLMs require access to log-probabilities output by the model or require fine-tuning access. However, many industrial LLM products use closed-source API models, and many such API models like GPT do not return log-probabilities and may not allow fine-tuning. We introduce Pinocchio, an external calibrator that estimates the cor

Key takeaways

  • arXiv:2609.24881v2 Announce Type: new Abstract: In high-stakes decision-making applications of large language models (LLMs), practitioners require not only accurate LLMs but also uncertainty estimates for their predictions.
  • Existing approaches to uncertainty estimation for LLMs require access to log-probabilities output by the model or require fine-tuning access.
  • However, many industrial LLM products use closed-source API models, and many such API models like GPT do not return log-probabilities and may not allow fine-tuning.

Why it matters

“Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models” should be evaluated beyond branding and benchmark scores. Its practical importance will emerge in task accuracy, latency, unit cost, safety and integration with real workflows.

Kaynak sitede devamını oku: arXiv Artificial Intelligence ↗