Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation
Quick summary
arXiv:2602.08889v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantitative risk assessment relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties. The Delphi method produces calibrated, auditable estimates but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications. We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing. Beyond lowering cost, this makes the assessment analyzable and dynamic. Rationales and revision histories record
Key takeaways
- arXiv:2602.08889v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantitative risk assessment relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties.
- The Delphi method produces calibrated, auditable estimates but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications.
- We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing.
Why it matters
The importance of “Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation” will be measured by what changes in practice. User behavior, access conditions, verifiable performance and responsible-use outcomes are the signals worth following.
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