TempoBench: Reasoning Execution Without Causal Attribution Is Just Simulation
Quick summary
arXiv:2510.27544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current training paradigms, optimized for long-horizon reasoning trace execution, have made Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at pattern matching and forward simulation of reasoning, but underperform at counterfactual causal understanding and reasoning. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verifiable temporal benchmark that isolates counterfactual causal attribution over execution trajectories, and we show that LLMs categorically fall back to brute-force simulation-based reasoning to solve causal reasoning problems. Built from synthes
Key takeaways
- arXiv:2510.27544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current training paradigms, optimized for long-horizon reasoning trace execution, have made Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at pattern matching and forward simulation of reasoning, but underperform at counterfactual causal understanding and reasoning.
- We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verifiable temporal benchmark that isolates counterfactual causal attribution over execution trajectories, and we show that LLMs categorically fall back to brute-force simulation-based reasoning to solve causal reasoning problems.
Why it matters
This model development creates a new option for users and a new testing obligation for developers. A fixed evaluation set comparing quality, cost and failure behavior is more useful than launch claims.
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